In my last post http://thequantinvestor.blogspot.com/2011/04/how-to-completely-outperform-market-by.html I outlined the results of a straightforward strategy of buying any stock that was at a 52 week high and selling after a certain amount of time (no fancy stop losses or sell rules). This time I'll examine the more classic strategy of buying low...at a 52 week low to be exact. Here we'll see if buying any stock, when its at its yearly worst, can be profitable
One of my readers pointed out to me that I may have had a survivorship bias in my last analysis. This was an excellent point and to help account for that, this time, I give you the ten year performance of every stock, still listed, on the major exchanges.
NYSE - +11%
Nasdaq - + 2%
Amex - + 14%
(thanks for the input Gary, but the 'buy high' strategy still works!)
So here you go... the performance of the 'buy low' strategy for different holding periods.
1 Month Hold
10 Year performance Avg. Return
NYSE -79% -1.3%
Nasdaq -70% -0.9%
Amex -62% -0.8%
3 Month Hold
10 Year performance Avg. Return
NYSE -39% -1.2%
Nasdaq -62% -2.4%
Amex -75% -3.4%
6 Month Hold
10 Year performance Avg. Return
NYSE -64% -4.9%
Nasdaq -64% -4.9%
Amex -67% -5.4%
12 Month Hold
10 Year performance Avg. Return
NYSE +30% 2.7%
Nasdaq -37% -4.6%
Amex -23% -2.6%
As you can see, buying any stock just because it's cheap seems to be a terrible idea (with the exception of a one year NYSE hold). On the other hand, SHORTING any stock or buying a nice put option may work out very well.
The lesson to be learned from this, and my last post, is that the common strategy of 'buy low and sell ***' should be taken with a large grain of salt. I encourage everybody to investigate what I've presented here and develop their own strategies. Money can be made...if you carefully consider what you are doing and don't just follow everybody else.
